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Version 154

9 January 2018

This is Version 154 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 9 January 2018.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Nigeria High 3.1 from Very High 3.3: Improved security presence is degrading ability of organised criminal gangs to hijack cargo vehicles.

Risk Score Changes  

Algeria Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Terrorist attacks on roads limited to hotspots like the Kabylie region and mostly target security forces’ convoys.   
Central African Republic Very High 3.9 from Very High 4.0: Most attacks on roads target NGO/UN vehicles, rather than commercial cargo.     
Iraq Very High 3.2 from Very High 3.6: Defeat of Islamic State as conventional military force reduces ground and aviation cargo risks; separately, absence of
 marine incidents and of evidence of intent to attack marine cargo. 
Israel and the PA High 2.7 from High 2.9: Increased risk to ground cargo as a result  of Israeli escalation in response to rocket attacks from Gaza.
Lebanon Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.5: De-escalation in Syria conflict reduces risk to aviation cargo from surface to air missile activity in Lebanese air space
 
Libya Severe 5.1 from Severe 5.2: Consolidation of Libyan National Army (LNA) control over Benghazi reduces risk to ground cargo in eastern Libya. 
Mali Very High 3.6 from Very High 3.7: Last collateral damage incurred by terrorist attack on UN base at airports in northern Mali was at Gao in November 2016. 
Pakistan High 2.5 from High 2.6: Reduced marine cargo risk, reflecting reduced militant activity and capability. 
Somalia Very High 4.0 from Very High 3.1: Al-Shabaab’s improved IED capability increases aviation cargo risk through IED attack on parked aircraft .
South Sudan  Very High 4.0 from Very High 4.1: Reduced risk to aviation cargo resulting from opposition militias’ lack of external support.
Sudan High 2.6 from High 2.7: Progress in peace talks and reduction in SPLM-N’s operating area reduce risk to ground and aviation cargo.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.0Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 3.9Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.1 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(High) 2.4    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.8Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0Yes    Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.5  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.9Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.1Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.1  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.2Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 4.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.0    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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