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Version 171

7 June 2019

This is Version 171 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 7 June 2019.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Saudi Arabia High 2.4 from Elevated 2.3: Sabotage attacks on tankers off UAE's Fujairah port increase likelihood of marine cargo disruption in event of
 confrontation between US and its allies and Iran in the Gulf.

Risk Score Changes  

DRC High 3.0 from High 3.1: Kasai militia surrenders and low probability of new Mai- Mai militias forming in eastern DRC reduce risk of attacks on ground cargo.
Ecuador Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8: Anti-austerity protests are likely to increase in the coming year, increasing the likelihood of cargo disruption at
 roadblocks and in city centres
Iran Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 1.9: Sabotage attacks on tankers off UAE's Fujairah port increase likelihood of marine cargo disruption in event of confrontation
 between US and its allies and Iran in the Gulf.
Libya Severe 5.4 from Severe 5.3: LNA announcement on 20 May, banning all 'enemy' shipping from Tripolitania's ports, increases risk of ships evading the ban being
 subject to LNA air strikes or maritime interception.
South Sudan Very High 3.8 from Very High 3.5: The presence of opposition militias in Juba following the planned formation of a transitional government (delayed for
 six months) increases the likelihood of disruption to ground and aviation cargo in the event of factional fighting.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7  YesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.8YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9    Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.2 YesYes Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.6      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6YesYes  Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6 Yes  Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0  YesYesYes  
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.6 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9 YesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(Elevated) 2.2     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3     Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6 YesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 2.0Yes YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.8Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.4Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6Yes YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.7    Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes  YesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.0 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.1 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 2.4Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.8  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.1    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Very high) 3.3 YesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.5 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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