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Version 167

1 February 2019

This is Version 167 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 1 February 2019.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Nil 

Risk Score Changes  

Bangladesh Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Despite allegations of electoral fraud, opposition parties are unlikely to launch long-term disruptive protests over
 demands for a re-election.
Ethiopia Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 1.9: Likely intensifying conflict with Oronia Liberation Front (OLF)  militants in western and southern Oronia poses increased
 attack and robbery risks to road cargo. 
Pakistan Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.3: Reduction in terrorism threat to aviation and ground cargo, given Pakistan Taliban’s (TTP) inability to recover its attack
 capabilities since the reversals suffered in 2018. 
South Sudan Very High 3.8 from Very High 4.0: A reduction in civil conflict since the September 2018 peace agreement will likely improve ground cargo access,
 despite residual threat from mobilised militia groups.
Venezuela High 2.5 from High 2.4: Overall cargo risk caused by high risk of looting of ground cargo is exacerbated by the risk that, in the event of an
 international humanitarian effort to supply food, the Venezuelan navy will intercept any foreign vessels that cross Venezuelan maritime boundaries.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.8Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.8YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 2.9  YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.6 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9 YesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.4Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3Yes    Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.8Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.2Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.8Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.2YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.2  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.0 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.1 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.8YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.8  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.1    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Very high) 3.3 YesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.5 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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