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Version 163

5 October 2018

This is Version 163 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 5 October 2018.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east) Low 0.6 from Moderate
 0.8: The risk score has been reduced given the sustained absence of cargo theft attacks on tankers since a less than fully successful attack in September 2017.

Risk Score Changes  

Algeria Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.9: Despite probable intent, militants lack capability to access urban airports, posing lower risk to aviation; ground cargo
 risks are mitigated by security measures, including the use of escorting convoys.
Argentina Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.9: The overall score is driven by decreasing marine cargo risks, with labour strikes having tendency to cause delays at
 ports, but unlikely to last longer than 24 hours at a time. 
Brazil Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.0: Piracy attacks in and around the Amazon delta remain on upward trend, affecting marine cargo.
Burundi High 2.5 from High 2.7: Road ambushes in Burundi, driven by probable increases in foreign support for anti-government militants, will be limited mostly to
 the use of small arms, posing lower risk to ground cargo.
Egypt High 2.7 from High 2.8: Islamic State militancy has significantly reduced in mainland Egypt, with little indication of increased recruitment.
Equatorial Guinea Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.1: The overall drop in score is driven by lower risks to marine cargo as the piracy activity occurs farther
 nearshore Nigeria and unlikely to affect Equatorial Guinea's territorial waters; in addition, risk to aviation also has decreased as the recent coup plotters
 proved to have lacked the capacity to target aviation and/or cargo. Increased security checks post-2017 coup also slightly reduce the risk of attacks on ground
 cargo.
Ethiopia Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including the partial re-opening of airspace, decreases violent risks to
 aviation; decreased likelihood of small arms violence, arson and looting also lowers risk to ground cargo.
Libya Severe 5.2 from Severe 5.1: Overall risk is driven by higher ground cargo risks due to militias increasing the number of road checkpoints in Tripoli in
 response to intensified fighting, and closure of the Ras Jadir border crossing with Tunisia.
Peru Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Score is slightly lower due to lack of reported attacks against aviation assets nationwide in the past twelve months.
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory) Elevated 2.3 from Elevated 2.2: Inter-ethnic violence and protests in Kabardino-Balkaria and
 Ingushetia republics in September 2018 will likely increase the disruption to ground cargo in North Caucasus region of Russia due to both police road blocks and
 road blockages by protesters.
Somalia Very High 3.9 from Very High 3.8: Seizure of aircraft between Puntland and Somaliland more likely as territorial dispute escalates ahead of Puntland's
 January 2019 election.
South Sudan Very High 4.0 from Very High 4.1: Aviation and ground cargo risks are likely to improve slightly due to the 12 September peace agreement between
 President Kiir and Riek Machar.
Yemen Severe 5.7 from Severe 5.6: Severe risk of coalition airstrikes targeting vehicles and ground cargo suspected of carrying weapons.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.8Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.7YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.0Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 2.9Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.7 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 1.9    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.6Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3Yes    Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.8Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.2Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.8Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .6YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.0 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.2 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.2  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.0    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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