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Version 159

4 June 2018

This is Version 159 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 4 June 2018.

Location Description Changes

Nil

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Ethiopia Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: New prime minister is likely to meet key protester demands during 2018, thus decreasing protest and attack risks to ground
 cargo. 

Risk Level Changes

Ethiopia Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: New prime minister is likely to meet key protester demands, reducing likelihood of protesters targeting of ground cargo for
 robbery and arson. 

Risk Score Changes  

Brazil Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.1: While current national truck drivers’ strike is likely to end within a few days, the high oil price poses a recurrent risk
 of truckers’ strike action, affecting all sectors of the economy.  
Egypt High 3.0 from High 3.1:  Overall risk to cargo driven by reduction in risk of ground attack on aviation and airfields as a result of government's open-ended
 counter-terror operation in Sinai.   
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N Elevated
 2.6 from Elevated 2.8:  Total of only four unsuccessful piracy attempts in last quarter likely indicates reduction in Somalia-based pirates capability.
Kenya High 2.4 from High 2.6: Overall risk to cargo driven by reduced risk to ground cargo, as fragmentation of opposition coalition following president's
 re-election will likely reduce likelihood of disruptive protests in the western and coastal regions. 
Madagascar Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.7: Widespread demonstrations leading up to the end-2018 elections are likely to cause persistent disruption to ground cargo
.
North Korea Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Promised planned investment in infrastructure following the declared cessation of nuclear tests increases the
 likelihood of improvement to ground cargo movements.
Sudan High 2.6 from High 2.7: SPLM-N signature of four-month ceasefire on 1 February 2018 indicates reduced intent to target government aircraft, in addition to
 already low capability.
Ukraine High 3.0 from High 2.9: Increased likelihood of minor marine incidents in the Sea of Azov following completion of Russian bridge, increasing disruption to
 marine cargo using both Ukrainian and Russian ports.
Ukraine (Ground: all; Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters) High 3.0 from High 2.9: Increased intensity of fighting in Donbass conflict zone
 throughout May increases ground cargo risks in separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.0Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.9YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 3.9Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.6Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3Yes    Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.9Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.1Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.8Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.2YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.2 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.1  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.2Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.1  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.0    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.6YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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