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Version 146

5 May 2017

This is Version 146 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on  5 May 2017.

Location Description Changes
 
Delete Cameroon (Marine: Bakassi Peninsula; Ground: All) : Absence of threat to cargo from pro-Nigeria separatists in Cameroon’s disputed Bakassi
 Peninsula/adjacent waters removes the need to single out the peninsular from the rest of Cameroon.  
 
Additions/Removals

Remove peril entries against Cameroon (Marine: Bakassi Peninsula; Ground: All) 
 
Risk Level Changes

Nil

Risk Score Changes

Gulf of Aden High 2.6 from High 2.4:  A quantum increase to nine piracy attempts in April, compared with four in March, confirms previously assessed trend of
 increasing risk to hulls and cargo as a result of a piracy resurgence, made possible by deteriorating security conditions onshore in the autonomous regions of
 Puntland and Galmudug.  
Jordan Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.1: Islamic State’s expansion in Sinai and its anti-shipping capability poses increased risk to marine cargo in the Gulf of
 Aqaba
Mexico Very High 3.7 from Very High 3.6: Increased risk of cargo theft, reflected in 139% increase in robberies in Q1 2017, compared with Q1 2016.    
Nepal Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.8: Reduction in politically motivated protests in Terai, bordering India, indicates decrease in risk to ground cargo.
Nigeria Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.3: While Abuja Airport has re-opened after runway extension, other work is still incomplete and there is an increased risk
 of operational disruption to aviation pending its completion (scheduled in three months),and a slightly increased vulnerability to terrorist attack.
Saudi Arabia Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.7: Increased al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) activity on Yemeni side of the border with Saudi Arabia indicates
 increased risk to ground cargo across the border in Saudi Arabia.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.6 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.2Yes   Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.8Yes YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Bolivia(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 3.6Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 2.9 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.6Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0     Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.6  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7 YesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.8 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.4Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.4YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.2Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.3  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(High) 2.5Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 1.8Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.2  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 5.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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