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Version 173

8 July 2019

This is Version 173 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 8 July 2019. Note that this new Watchlist reflects score changes compared with Watchlist 171, published on 7 June 2019, not with the 'interim' Watchlist 172, published on 28 June 2019.

Location Description Changes

Add:
Occupied Palestinian Territory (‘tidying up’ to differentiate Palestinian cargo risks from Israeli risks.) 
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E: High 3.0
United Arab Emirates 

Addition/Removals
Occupied Palestine Territory and UAE entries annotated with all perils except for ‘piracy’ and ‘cargo theft’. Persian Gulf risk area annotated with Marine -War,
 Marine Strikes.

Risk Levels
Iran High 2.4 from Elevated 2.0: Shootdown of US surveillance UAV increases likelihood of limited US military strikes against Iran, and Iran's use of
 surface-to-air  missiles, increasing risk of accidental shootdown for civil aviation.

Risk Scores
Algeria Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8:  On-going anti-government protests, although largely  peaceful, likely to cause ground traffic/cargo disruption in
 Algeria's main cities..
Brazil Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.2: Reduced cargo theft risk as records in Sao Paulo and Rio showed marked decline in first five months of 2019 20% and 63%
 respectively.
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos) Very High
 3.4 from Very High 3.6: Improved police use of crime data has reduced cargo theft  in Sao Paolo, while residual military presence in Rio, notwithstanding the
 army’s official withdrawal in December 2018, reduces cargo theft risk. 
Egypt High  2.4 from High 2.6: Improvements made in Egyptian naval capacity reduce likelihood of successful terror attacks on marine assets in Suez Canal or on
 Mediterranean coast.
Iraq Very High 3.3 from Very High 3.2: Ongoing US-Iran confrontation increases risk of vessels being blocked at sea and/or marine assets affiliated with US allies
 being targeted for sabotage attacks.
Lebanon Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.3: Marine assets affiliated with US regional allies face elevated risk of retaliatory sabotage by pro-Iranian militias in
 the event of any US military action against Iran.
Mauritania Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.1: Renewal of fishing agreement with Senegal in November 2019 is problematic, increasing likelihood of violent
 confrontations between Senegalese and Mauritanian fishermen and between Senegalese fishermen and Mauritanian authorities.
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato
 state.) Very High 3.9 from Very High 3.8 : Reports of cargo theft continue upward trend and deployment of National Guard to southern border with Guatemala to check
 flow of migrants will be at expense of resources committed to countering organised crime.  
Occupied Palestinian Territory New Entry: 4.8 
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E New Entry: High 3.0 
Philippines Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Coordinated surveillance between regional navies has reduced the risk of kidnap for ransom by Abu Sayyaf Group in the
 Sulu Sea.
Russia Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Ukraine's announcement that it will conduct no more provocative naval movements through via the Kerch Strait decreases risk
 of maritime confrontation in the Sea of Azov region.
Saudi Arabia High 2.7 from High 2.4: Houthi acknowledgement of strategy to target Saudi airports with missiles and weaponised UAVs increasing risk to aviation.  US
 claim of Iranian responsibility for tanker attacks raises risk of war affecting marine assets in Saudi waters.
South Korea Elevated 1.8 from Elevated 1.9: Labour strikes, the main cause of ground cargo disruption, have been relatively small and peaceful this year.
UAE New Entry Elevated 1.8.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7  YesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYes    
Argentina(Elevated) 1.8YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9    Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1 YesYes Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.4      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6YesYes  Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6 Yes  Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0  YesYesYes  
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9 YesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(Elevated) 2.2     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3     Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6 YesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.4Yes YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.3YesYesYes Yes  
Israel(High) 2.8YesYesYes Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.4Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6Yes YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.7    Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes  YesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(High) 3.0YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.0 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 1.9  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia (Gulf Coast) (High) 2.8YesYes Yes   
Saudi Arabia (Red Sea Coast)(High) 2.9YesYes Yes   
Somalia(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.9    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
United Arab Emirates(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.5 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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