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Version 160

9 July 2018

This is Version 160 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 9 July 2018.

Location Description Changes

Nil.

Addition/Removals

Nil

Risk Level Changes

Nigeria High 3.1 from Very High 3.2: The time elapsed since a second threat made by the Niger Delta Avengers in Jan 18 to renew attacks on the oil sector reduces
 the likelihood of an imminent new campaign, reducing risk to marine cargo, in particular.  
Pakistan Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: Sustained reduction in jihadist attacks, and killing of TTP leader in Afghanistan in US UAE strike, further reduce risks posed
 to cargo, particularly aviation and marine cargo, by jihadists or organised crime (in Karachi).

Risk Score Changes  

Algeria Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Low level of jihadist activity, primarily targeting of security forces in Kabylie and the south, indicates reduced
 terrorism risk to ground cargo. Separately, while localised economic protests are likely to result in temporary road blockades, ground cargo operations unlikely to
 be significantly disrupted.   
Bangladesh Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1:  The opposition BNP's muted protests since the arrest of its leader indicate lowering protests and consequent ground
 disruption risks ahead of the elections in Q4 2018.   
Brazil Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Overall slight drop in risk driven primarily by improved security at airports and lack of attacks on aircraft and airport
 assets, as well as to absence of property damage. ( Ground cargo risk score increased to Very High 3.5, given likelihood of further truck drivers’ strike.
Central African Republic Very High 4.0 from Very High 3.9: With 80% of CAR now under militia control, airstrips/aviation assets are at high risk of attack and
 MINUSCA is struggling to maintain security, increasing risks to ground and aviation cargos 
Chad High 2.9 from High 3.0: Overall slight drop driven by reduced risk to aviation. cargo, as rebel groups lack surface to air capabilities to target government
 jets or commercial aircraft.
Congo - Brazzaville Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.2: Cargo risk reduced due to the signed agreement between armed opposition militias and the government, reducing
 likelihood of attacks on ground cargo in the Pool district; anti-government militias lack capability to attack aircraft using Brazzaville airport.
Egypt High 2.9 from High 3.0: Aviation cargo less likely to be at risk due to reduced likelihood of successful attacks around Al Arish International Airport as a
 result of buffer zones maintained by the security forces in Sinai; in addition, continuation of Operation Comprehensive Sinai likely to reduce risk of attack to
 ground cargo in mainland and Sinai.
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa) Elevated 2.3 from Elevated 2.4: Formation of special state-level police force in Chhattisgarh should
 prove effective in reducing Naxalite militancy, further reducing risk to ground cargo in this state.
Indonesia Elevated 1.6 from Elevated 1.7: Sustained operations with Malaysia and Philippines further reduce risk of piracy in Sulu Sea.
Israel and the PA High 2.8 from High 2.9: Except for increased risk of unintended escalation into interstate war with Hizbullah in Lebanon, as a result of conflict
 in Syria, environment for ground cargo is benign.
Lebanon Very High 3.3 from Very High 3.5: Risk to marine and aviation cargo and assets lower due to reduced terrorism and war risks. 
Malay Peninsula Moderate 0.8 from Moderate 1.0: Sustained absence since August 2015 of successful theft of oil from a tanker indicates reduced capability, if not
 of pirate intent. 
Mali Very High 3.7 from Very High 3.6: Scale and complexity of jihadist attack on UN/French military base located at Timbuktu airport in April 2018 indicator of
 increased intent and attack capability, increasing risk to aircraft on ground and to aviation cargo.
Nepal Elevated 1.6 from Elevated 1.7: Drop in overall risk is driven by lower probability of protesters targeting airports; protests in general are gradually
 becoming less violent.
Russia Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: Increased probability of marine incidents in the Sea of Azov slightly increase of marine cargo disruption in this area.
Somalia Very High 3.8 from Very High 3.9: Aviation cargo risk reduced by absence of recent evidence that Al-Shabaab has access to high-altitude MANPADs or the
 capability to use them.
South Korea Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 2.0: Slightly reduced risk to marine cargo as North Korea is unlikely to put follow-up talks to the summit meetings at risk
 by test-firing missiles into the Sea of Japan or artillery into the Yellow Sea.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.9Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.9YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.0Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 2.9Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.9 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.8Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.1Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.8Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) .8YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.2 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.1  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.2Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.8YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.1  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.0    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.6YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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