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Version 155

5 February 2018

This is Version 155 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 5 February 2018.

Location Description Changes

Delete 'India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarth)'.
Insert  'India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarth, Jharkand, Orissa).


Delete all perils against  'India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarth)'

Insert new entry against ' India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattsgarth, Jharkand, Orissa)' for 'Ground-War/Strikes'

Risk Level Changes

Cote d'Ivoire Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: Reduced risks to aviation and marine cargo as threat to airports from Islamist militants now appears minimal, while risk
 of further disruption to port activities as a result of security force mutinies is now low.

Risk Score Changes  

Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC) High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk to ground and aviation cargo as co-operation among Mai-Mai militias raises the likelihood of
 their seizure of medium-sized Kivus localities and airfields.   
Gulf of Guinea High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk to oil tankers and oil sector infrastructure off Nigeria following 17 January threat by Niger Delta Avengers
 (NDA) to resume attacks on oil sector, particularly deep-water operations, following lack of progress of negotiations with the government. 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattsgarth, Jharkand, Orissa): New entry of High 2.4. 
Madagascar Elevated 1.7 from Elevated 1.6: Poor state of the road to Ivato airport makes cargo more vulnerable to theft.     
North Korea Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.0: South Korean authorities likely to seize vessels (most likely Chinese and Russian) suspected of sanctions-breaking
 ship-to-ship transfers to North Korea. 
Pakistan High 2.4 from High 2.5: Reduced risk to ground cargo and transportation indicated by drop in militant attacks during 2017.
Russia Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Improved security features at Russian airports ahead of the FIFA WC2018 to likely lower terrorism risks to airframes and
 aviation cargo. 
Somalia Very High 3.9 from Very High 4.0: Joint SNA-US operations around Kismayo reduce terrorist risk to parked aircraft and aviation cargo in southern Lower Juba
Ukraine High 2.9 from High 3.0: European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) decision not to impose restrictions on flights from the EU to three airports in eastern
 Ukraine indicates assessment of reduced risks to aviation assets. 
Yemen Severe 5.6 from Severe 5.5: Houthi threat to target international shipping indicates growing marine cargo risks in the southern Yemeni Red Sea.


LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Algeria(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYesYesYes
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYesYesYes
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Chad(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Egypt(High) 3.1 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(High) 2.4    YesYesYes
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.9Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYesYesYes
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Libya(Severe) 5.1YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Mali(Very high) 3.6    YesYesYes
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    YesYesYes
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYesYesYes
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.1Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  YesYesYesYesYes
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.1  YesYesYesYesYes
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYesYesYes
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Ukraine(High) 2.9    YesYesYes
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.1YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.6YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  YesYesYesYesYes

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk

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