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Version 151

6 October 2017

This is Version 151 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 6 October 2017.

Location Description Changes




Risk Level Changes.

Russia Elevated 2.3 from High 2.4: Reduced risk of disruption to ground cargo as a result of labour strikes and economic protests.

Risk Score Changes

Algeria Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.2: Ongoing security force operations in coastal and urban areas reduce terrorism risk to ground cargo.
Burundi High 2.7 from High 2.6: Likely increase raids into north-west Burundi and outskirts of Bujumbura by anti-government militias will pose increased risk to
 ground cargo.
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh) High 2.5 from High 2.6: Reduced frequency of Naxalite attacks and security force successes indicate
 reduced terrorist risk to ground cargo. 
Iraq Very High 3.6 from Very High 3.7: Government recapture of Tel Afar from Islamic State reduces terrorism risk to ground cargo in Nineveh province.
Lebanon Very High 3.5 from Very High 3.6: Government forces’ defeat of Islamic State and its withdrawal from Bekaa valley reduces terrorism risk to ground cargo.
Libya Severe 5.2 from Severe 5.3: Improved capability of militias making up coastguard mitigates marine cargo risks off western Tripolitania.  
Mali Very High 3.7 from Very High 3.6: Increased terrorism risk to UN and French military convoys. 
Niger High 2.6 from High 2.4: Increased terrorism risk to ground cargo from jihadists operating in north, central and western Niger.
Pakistan High 2.6 from High 2.7: Reduced terrorism risk to ground cargo as a result of rate of defections from Pakistan Taliban (TTP).
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.): Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.3: Reduced level of
 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine, and reduced Russian military assistance to separatists, indicate reduction in risk of disruption to ground cargo on
 Russian side of the border. 
Somalia Very High 3.9 from Very High 4.0: Success of Somali government/AMISOM joint operations, and capture of al-Shabaab commander, reduces terrorism risk to
 aviation cargo from IED attack at Mogadishu Airport 
Syria Severe 4.9 from Severe 5.0: Astana agreement on de-escalation zone in central Syria reduces risk of collateral damage to ground cargo from factional fighting
 in western and southern Syria.  
Ukraine Very High 3.4 from Very High 3.5: Continued localisation of conflict in eastern Ukraine reduces risk of disruption/collateral damage to ground cargo in
 remainder of country.
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.):  High 3.0 from High 3.1: Reduced level of ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine
 indicates reduced likelihood of Russian-backed separatist offensive across the Line of Contact.


LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.6 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.1Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.7Yes YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7 Yes    Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.9Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0Yes    Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.5  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.6 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.2Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.1Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.3  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.2  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.0Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(Very high) 3.4    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk

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