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Version 165

10 December 2018

This is Version 165 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 10 December 2018.

Location Description Changes




Risk Level Changes

India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)  High 2.4 from Elevated 2.3: Increased risk of ground cargo disruption resulting from Naxalite
 insurgent attacks, particularly in Chhattisgarh state, in the run-up to state and national elections up to May 2019.
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Very High 3.3 from High 3.1:  Increased risk of disruption to shipping using Ukrainian
 ports on the Sea of Azov, following Russian seizure of three Ukrainian navy vessels and temporary blocking of passage under Strait of Azov bridge.

Risk Score Changes  

Egypt High 2.6 from High 2.7: Government’s counter-terrorism campaign has reduced capacity of Islamic State to attack construction convoys and ground cargo in
 northern and central Sinai.
Guinea Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.1: A return to frequent protests after a failed election agreement increases the risk of disruption to ground cargo on main
 routes in the capital, Conakry, marine cargo in the port of Conakry, and disruption to Conakry’s city centre airport.
Philippines Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.2: Reduced ground cargo risks as a result of an ongoing military campaign in Mindanao, which has degraded the capability
 of local Islamist and Marxist insurgents and reduced the frequency of ambushes on roads.
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Elevated 2.3 from Elevated 2.2: Increased risk of
 disruption to shipping using Russian ports on the Sea of Azov as a result of Russian harassment of shipping using Ukrainian ports.
Ukraine: High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increased risk of ground cargo disruption as a result of the declaration of martial law in eastern provinces bordering on Russia
 and the Sea of Azov.


LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.8Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.8YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.0Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 2.9  YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 2.6 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 1.9    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.6     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3Yes    Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(High) 2.4    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.2 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.8Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.4  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.2Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.8Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .6YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.2YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.0 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.1 YesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.1    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk

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