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Version 147

2 June 2017

This is Version 147 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on  2 June  2017.

Location Description Changes

 Insert ‘ Cameroon’: this follows removal of ‘Cameroon (Marine: Bakassi Peninsula; Ground: All)’  from the May Watch List.  

Insert ‘Ukraine’. This reflects current very high risk of cargo disruption resulting from labour unrest in Ukraine as a whole, separate to the impact on cargo of
 civil/interstate war risks in eastern Ukraine, arising out of the conflict between the government and Russian-backed separatist militias.   

Additions/Removals:

Cameroon, insert initial score of  ‘High 2.6’ and annotate peril  ‘Ground –War/Strikes’ 

Ukraine, insert initial score of  ‘Very High 3.5’ and annotate peril ‘Ground-War/Strikes’

Risk Level Changes

Russia High 2.4 from Elevated 2.3: Increased risk of disruption to marine cargo, resulting from further North Korean missile tests into Sea of Japan, the impact
 areas of which are moving closer to Russian waters.

Risk Score Changes:

Bolivia Elevated 2.3 from Elevated 2.2: Increased risk of disruption to cross-border ground cargo as a result of Chilean allegations of smuggling from Bolivia and
 industrial action by Chilean customs officials.
Gulf of Aden High 2.8 from High 2.6:  Pirate use of two motherships in one of latest attack attempts indicates potential increase in pirates’ operating range and
 attack aspirations.  
Malay Peninsula Moderate 1.2 from Moderate 1.4: Absence of incidents involving targeting of a tanker since unsuccessful attempt in March 2017, and last successful
 attack in August 2015, indicates reduction in pirate tanker attack capability, if not intent. 
Nigeria Very High 3.3 from Very High 3.4: Reduced risk to marine cargo and onshore oil infrastructure following decrease in Niger Delta militant activity as
 negotiations make progress. 
Saudi Arabia Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8: Increased risk of attacks by Yemen-based insurgents on hulls, marine cargo and port infrastructure in Saudi Arabia’s
 border province of Jizan.
Somalia Very High 3.7 from Very High 3.9: Reduced risk to ground cargo, following AMISOM sector commanders’ endorsement of planned offensive against al-Shabaab,
 aimed at securing major cargo routes .


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.6 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.2Yes   Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.8Yes YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Bolivia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 3.6Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(High) 2.5  YesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 2.9 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.8Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0     Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.6  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.8 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.4Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.2YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.2Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYes   
Russia(High) 2.4  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(High) 2.5Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 1.9Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.2  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 5.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(Very high) 3.5    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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