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Version 149

4 August 2017

This is Version 149 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 7 July  2017.

There are no Location Description Changes, Additions/Removals or Risk Level Changes this month.
 
Risk Score Changes

Central African Republic: Very High 4.0 from Very High 3.6: Due to spreading insurgency now affecting most parts of the country except Bangui and the southwest,
 land cargo and transportation - particularly UN and NGO convoys - are likely to be attacked or disrupted on major roads and around towns with UN bases.
Colombia: High 2.4 from High 2.5: Successful completion of FARC disarmament reduces likelihood of resumption of roadside IEDs and the deliberate targeting of road
 cargo (especially fuel tankers) in Antioquia, Casanare, Cauca, Meta, Norte de Santander, Putumayo and Nariño.
Kenya: High 2.7 from High 2.6: Opposition's failed court ruling on electoral dispute motivates ethnic-Luo protests at August elections blocking Mombasa, JKIA, and
 Uganda road links.
North Korea: Elevated 2 from Elevated 2.2: Cargo risks fell in July with the end of annual US-South Korea military exercises; the absence of projectiles and live
 fire drills offset the small rise in risk following N Korea’s latest ICBM launch earlier in July, given the dearth of US/ South Korean military options.
Saudi Arabia: Elevated 2 from Elevated 2.1: US recalcitrance towards JCPOA and Saudi hostility towards Iran reduces risk of Iranian provoked incident near Saudi
 territorial waters outside divided zone.
South Sudan: Very High 4.0 from Very High 4.2: Rebel capabilities, including access to SAMs have reduced significantly due to a suspension of support from Sudan;
 most major airstrips have also seen increased government security.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.6 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.2Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.7Yes YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 Yes  Yes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7 Yes    Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    Yes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(High) 2.4   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.1 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.0 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.1 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.9Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0     Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.6  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.8 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.4Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.2YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.6    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)(Very high) 3.7      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYes   
Russia(Elevated) 2.3  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.0Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 4.0YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9 Yes  Yes  
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 5.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(Very high) 3.5    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.4YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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