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Version 175

6 September 2019

This is Version 175 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 6 September 2019.

LOCATION CHANGES

None

RISK LEVEL CHANGES

COLOMBIA High 2.4 from Elevated 2.3: Increased risk to ground cargo in central provinces, particularly associated with oil and gas and mining projects, driven by
 FARC dissident declaration of return to arms. 

EGYPT Elevated 2.2 from High 2.4: Decreased risk to ground cargo and aviation in mainland Egypt, indicated by notable reduction in capability of militant groups,
 though risk remains higher to military and industrial cargo in North Sinai.

INDIA (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa) Elevated 2.1 from High 2.4: Decreased risk to ground cargo in eastern states from Naxalite militants,
 who have been losing popular support and capability due to a security forces crackdown.

RISK SCORE CHANGES

QATAR High 2.5 from High 2.4: Reflecting increased risk to marine cargo and infrastructure from Iranian strikes against US military base in Doha in the event of a
 war between the US and Iran. We currently assess the likelihood of such a war at 20%. 

SOUTH KOREA Elevated 1.9 from Elevated 1.8: Increased risk to aviation, indicated by South Korea firing warning shots at a Russian aircraft that violated its
 airspace, highlighting higher risk of lethal accidents and unintended escalation. 

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 1.8: Increased risk to marine cargo off the coast of Fujairah from limited attacks by the IRGC while US sanctions
 remain in place. Also increased risk of delays for ground cargo at the border with Saudi Arabia, due to policy divergence over the war in Yemen and confrontation
 with Iran.

VENEZUELA High 2.6 from High 2.5: Increased risk to ground cargo from likely protests against planned fuel subsidy reduction.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7  YesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Argentina(Elevated) 1.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Azerbaijan(Moderate) 1.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.4      Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Burundi(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Colombia(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Egypt(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Georgia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(Elevated) 2.2     Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(Very high) 3.3     Yes 
India (Eastern India: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa)(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Israel(High) 2.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Kenya(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Low) .4     Yes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.9      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.6  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Nigeria(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Occupied Palestinian Territory(Severe) 4.8YesYesYesYesYes  
Pakistan(Elevated) 2.3YesYesYesYesYes  
Persian or Arabian Gulf and adjacent waters including the Gulf of Oman west of Longitude 58°E(High) 3.1YesYes     
Peru(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Qatar(High) 2.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.3YesYes  Yes  
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3  YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(High) 2.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.7YesYesYesYesYes  
South Korea(Elevated) 1.9YesYesYesYesYes  
South Sudan(Very high) 3.7  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 2.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine (Ground: Donbass conflict zone; Marine: Black Sea coast and Sea of Azov within territorial waters)(Very high) 3.2YesYes  Yes  
United Arab Emirates(Elevated) 2.2YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.1  YesYesYes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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