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Version 152

3 November 2017

This is Version 152 of the JCC Cargo Watchlist.  It was last updated on 3 November 2017.

Location Description Changes

Delete: Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states.)
Insert: Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in
 Guanajuato state.)

Additions/Removals

Delete cargo theft peril against Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and
 Guerrero states.)
Insert  cargo theft peril against Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and
 Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)

Risk Level Changes.

Ukraine High 3.0 from Very High 3.4: Reduced frequency of incidents of road blockages by nationalist protesters indicates lower ground cargo disruption risks for
 Ukraine as a whole. End of Kerch Strait temporary closures due to bridge construction reduces the risk of operational disruption in Black and Azov seas, affecting
 shipping using Ukrainian ports.

Risk Score Changes

Afghanistan Severe 4.7 from Severe 4.6: Attack at Kabul International Airport indicates that insurgents, most likely associated with the Taliban, have increased
 their operational capability and improved intelligence networks, increasing risk to aviation cargo.
Congo – Kinshasa (aka DRC) High 3.0 from High 3.1: Although  ground cargo risks remain Very High, the drop in overall country cargo risk has been driven by the
 absence of incidents involving violent risks to marine cargo.
Egypt High 3.1 from High 3.0: Increasing frequency of attacks on commercial traffic on desert roads, carrying freight and materiel to military-owned companies in
 North Sinai.
Guinea Elevated 2.2 from Elevated 2.1: Freight road traffic in the Boke region, especially associated with mining freight, is likely to continue to be severely
 disrupted by community protests.
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N: High 2
.7 from High 2.9: Despite sustained rate of attack attempts in Red Sea/Gulf of Aden, pirates low cargo theft success rate indicates major limitations on their
 capabilities and continued effectiveness of international maritime forces and risk migration measures, especially armed guards.
New entry: Mexico (Estado de Mexico-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de Mexico-Queretaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacan and Guerrero states, railways in
 Guanajuato state) Very High 3.8 from Very High 3.7: Cargo theft incidents have  increased on the Mexico-Veracruz highway and theft of rail cargo has developed as a
 new risk in Guanajuato state.
North Korea Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.1: Overall country cargo risk has reduced slightly as a result of reduction in ground (principally rail) cargo risk, which
 does not appear to have been affected by UN sanctions.
Russia Elevated 2.1 from Elevated 2.3: Completion of Zapad-2017 military exercise and return of Russian troops to their bases reduces risk of disruption to ground
 cargo in western Russia and to commercial aviation over the Baltic Sea area. Separately, end of Kerch Strait temporary closures due to bridge construction reduces
 the risk of operational disruption in Black and Azov seas, affecting shipping using Russian ports.
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.) Elevated 2.0 from Elevated 2.2: Low activity
 level on Line of Separation in eastern Ukraine, completion of Exercise Zapad 17 and end of Kerch Strait temporary indicate reduced risk of cargo disruption caused
 by Russian military deployments and work on Kerch Strait bridge.


Versions: 

LocationRiskMarine - WarMarine - StrikesAir - War/StrikesAir - WarGround - War/StrikesPiracy:only for use with JC2011/017 GCWL Clause 2011Cargo Theft
Afghanistan(Severe) 4.7 YesYesYesYes  
Algeria(Elevated) 2.1Yes Yes Yes  
Argentina(Elevated) 2.0YesYes  Yes  
Azerbaijan(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Bangladesh(Elevated) 2.1Yes   Yes  
Brazil(Elevated) 2.0 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Brazil ( BR-116 Highway Curitaba- Sao Paulo; SP-330 Highway Uberaba-Santos port; BR-116 Highway Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo, BR 050 Highway Brasilia-Santos).(Very high) 3.7 Yes    Yes
Burkina Faso(High) 2.4Yes   Yes  
Burundi(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Cameroon(High) 2.6    YesYesYes
Central African Republic(Very high) 4.0Yes YesYesYes  
Chad(High) 3.0Yes YesYesYesYes 
Colombia(Elevated) 2.3   YesYes  
Congo - Brazzaville (aka Republic of Congo)(Elevated) 2.2    Yes  
Congo - Kinshasa (aka DRC)(High) 3.0 YesYes Yes  
Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)(High) 2.4 YesYesYesYes  
Ecuador(Elevated) 1.8 Yes  Yes  
Egypt(High) 3.1 Yes  Yes  
Equatorial Guinea(Elevated) 2.1YesYesYesYesYes  
Eritrea(High) 2.4YesYesYesYesYes  
Ethiopia(Elevated) 2.3    Yes  
Georgia(Elevated) 2.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Guinea(Elevated) 2.2 Yes  Yes  
Gulf of Aden sea area and to 65° E off the Somali coast, bound to the north by latitude 23°30 N, and bound to the south by 12°S and in the Red Sea by 14°N(High) 2.7Yes    Yes 
Gulf of Guinea, in the sea area between 4°30'W 5°8'44.274"N and 3°6'13.966"W 2°20'12.8"N in the west, and 9°46'18.636"E 2°20'12.8"N (Cameroon-Equatorial Guinea border) in the east.(High) 3.0Yes    Yes 
India (Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, Bihar, Jharkand, Chhattisgarh)(High) 2.5  Yes Yes  
Indonesia(Elevated) 1.7YesYesYesYesYes  
Iran(Elevated) 1.9  YesYesYes  
Iraq(Very high) 3.6 YesYesYesYes  
Israel and the PA(High) 2.7Yes   Yes  
Jordan(Elevated) 2.2 Yes     
Kenya(High) 2.7  YesYesYes  
Lebanon(Very high) 3.5YesYesYesYesYes  
Libya(Severe) 5.2Yes YesYesYes  
Madagascar(Elevated) 1.6Yes      
Malay Peninsula (Singapore Strait in its entirety and the South China Sea bound at 4°N to the north, 1°N to the south and 106°E to the east’.)(Moderate) 1.0YesYesYesYesYesYes 
Mali(Very high) 3.7    Yes  
Mauritania(Elevated) 2.1    Yes  
Mexico (Estado de México-Puebla-Veracruz highway; Estado de México-Querétaro highway, highways in Tamaulipas, Michoacán and Guerrero states, railways in Guanajuato state.)(Very high) 3.8      Yes
Nepal(Elevated) 1.7  YesYesYes  
Niger(High) 2.6YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Nigeria(Very high) 3.3YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
North Korea(Elevated) 2.0Yes      
Pakistan(High) 2.6  YesYesYes  
Peru(Elevated) 2.1 Yes YesYes  
Philippines(Elevated) 2.3 YesYesYesYesYesYes
Russia(Elevated) 2.1  Yes Yes  
Russia (Ground: within 200km of the land border with Ukraine. Marine: Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(Elevated) 2.0  YesYes   
Russia (North Caucasus Federal District, less Stavropol Territory)(Elevated) 2.3Yes YesYesYes  
Saudi Arabia(Elevated) 2.0Yes YesYesYes  
Somalia(Very high) 3.9YesYesYesYesYesYes 
South Korea(Elevated) 2.0 YesYesYesYesYesYes
South Sudan(Very high) 4.0  YesYesYes  
Sudan(High) 2.7Yes YesYesYes  
Syria(Severe) 4.9YesYesYesYesYes  
Ukraine(High) 3.0    Yes  
Ukraine (Ground: all. Marine; Black Sea coast within territorial waters.)(High) 3.0YesYesYesYesYes  
Venezuela(High) 2.4 Yes  Yes  
Yemen(Severe) 5.5YesYesYesYesYes Yes
Zimbabwe(Elevated) 2.0  Yes Yes  

‘Risk’ indicates overall country risk. Subsequent columns specify whether or not there is a particular risk to cargo assets in the category quoted.

What is the Risk Scale?

6.5 And AboveExtreme
4.4 to 6.4Severe
3.2 to 4.3Very high
2.4 to 3.1High
1.6 to 2.3Elevated
0.8 to 1.5Moderate
0 to 0.7Low

The risk scale ranges from 0 - 10. The scores enable the comparison of risk between location, providing a greater degree of precision than risk bands alone (e.g. Extreme). Each risk band has been colour coded to be consistent with the system used by IHS Country Risk


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